BlockBeats News, May 15th - HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research analyst Chloe pointed out that on May 14th, Kevin Warsh was formally confirmed as Chair of the Federal Reserve by an extremely slim Senate vote, marking the completion of the most controversial Federal Reserve leadership transition in decades. Global risk assets, especially the crypto market, are about to enter a new stage of "high volatility + high uncertainty."

The biggest contradiction in the current market lies in the direct conflict between "political rate-cut demands" and "realistic inflationary pressures." Trump continues to demand rapid rate cuts to stabilize the financial environment ahead of the midterm elections, but the latest U.S. PPI reached 6% year-on-year, with core PPI at 5.2%, far exceeding market expectations, indicating that the energy price surge driven by the Iran conflict has spread to a wider range of goods and services.

Warsh's position is more complex than market expectations. Despite being seen by the Trump camp as a candidate "more willing to cut rates," his long-term ideological framework is fundamentally hawkish. He has repeatedly criticized the Fed's market intervention and has long opposed unlimited balance sheet expansion. The direction he truly advocates is not the traditional large-scale easing, but rather closer to a "de-QE'd low-rate environment": reducing the balance sheet, decreasing market intervention, while leveraging AI productivity gains and regulatory easing to suppress inflation. This implies that the future U.S. liquidity environment is likely to be very different from the era of unlimited QE in 2020-2021. The market should not expect a full-scale asset bubble-like surge, but is more likely to enter a phase of structured liquidity distribution.

The most significant observation window in the short term is the FOMC meeting on June 16-17, where Warsh will chair the rate decision for the first time. If the meeting signals a continued focus on fighting inflation, risk assets may face a period of adjustment. If Warsh begins to emphasize growth risks and slowing employment, the market may reprice rate cut expectations. For the crypto market, the tone of this meeting will directly determine the next phase of liquidity expectations and pricing direction.