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Wintermute: Bitcoin Bottom Undefined, Focus on Capital Flows, Powell Speech and US-Iran Deal Key
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BlockBeats News, June 17th. Wintermute released its weekly market report. As of the week ending June 15th, the market saw a risk-on sentiment rebound driven by the US-Iran ceasefire and CPI data. Wintermute believes that Bitcoin is quite attractive above $60,000 in terms of risk-reward ratio. Each sell-off eliminates weak hands, leaving behind a group with higher-quality holdings and stronger conviction. However, this does not mean that the bottom has been firmly established. Until the situation significantly improves, a drop to the $50,000 range is still possible. The current position structure has seen some unwinding, and the net selling pressure has eased.

What truly needs attention is the fund flows, not just the price or news headlines. In the last cycle, the real turning point was the continuous inflow of funds from ETFs and stablecoins, a trend that is not yet evident. Therefore, blindly chasing any uptrend is futile. In the short term, Powell's speech on Wednesday is crucial. If the dovish sentiment hints at a softening core interest rate and a drop in oil prices, the market will see a positive impact; if the hawkish sentiment suggests a 4.2% rate hike, the positive trend will end. Apart from this, the agreement signed between the US and Iran in Switzerland on Friday is the truly significant event.

المصدر:BlockBeats

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