BlockBeats News, June 30th - Research firm Ned Davis Research stated that the U.S. stock market recently saw two historically rare market divergence signals: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) continued to hit new highs while the "Tech Big Seven" lagged significantly behind; and the Dow Jones Industrial Average showed significant divergence from the Nasdaq Composite Index's trend. Historical data shows that such situations often occur near major market turning points.

The data shows that as of mid-June, on a 26-week rolling basis, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index outperformed the Bloomberg "Tech Big Seven" Index by over 100 percentage points, with the correlation between the two falling to its lowest level since the end of 2021. Ned Davis Research pointed out that a similar divergence occurred in 2021, followed by the "Tech Big Seven" and semiconductor sectors peaking one after another, leading the U.S. stock market into a bear market in 2022.

Meanwhile, in the seven trading days leading up to June 25th, the Dow rose by 0.5%, while the Nasdaq fell by 5%, resulting in a 5.5 percentage point performance difference between the two. Since the establishment of the Nasdaq in 1971, such a large divergence has only occurred on about 1% of trading days. Historical statistics show that after such a divergence, the probability of the market being in a bear market for the next three months is about 66.9%, significantly higher than the historical average of 24.8%.

However, the firm emphasized that the above statistical patterns do not necessarily mean that a bear market is imminent, but the current market rally lacks broad participation, and the divergence between different industries continues to widen. Investors should continue to monitor whether the above divergences further intensify and manage risks in a timely manner.