BlockBeats News, June 7th, Glassnode's co-founder Rafael announced that Bitcoin has retraced about 50% from its all-time high. On-chain data shows that BTC is currently operating around the important support area formed by the median price ( $64.1k) and the 200-week moving average ( $61.7k). Historically, Bitcoin has only spent about 7% of its trading time below this level.

Looking at the long-term valuation model, below the 200-week moving average are the realized price (around $54k), CVDD (around $46.2k), fair value price (around $40k), and Delta price (around $35k). Previous bear market bottoms have touched this cost range before completing a reversal, with CVDD considered the most accurate historical bottom indicator. According to the current model calculation, the $46k to $54k range constitutes a higher probability bottom area, while the $35k to $40k range belongs to a deep surrender zone in an extreme panic scenario, historically accounting for less than 3% of trading days.

However, as the Bitcoin market matures, the magnitude of retracements in each cycle is narrowing. In the previous bear markets, the largest declines reached 85%, 84%, and 77%, respectively, while this round has only retraced about 50% from the all-time high so far. This implies that there is still a possibility of further downside, but the higher probability bottom may be in the $46k to $54k range. If there is a subsequent rebound, $75k to $79k will be the first important recovery zone, with greater pressure around the 50-week moving average near $93k and the previous all-time high.