BlockBeats News, on June 22, crypto market analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that on-chain data shows the Bitcoin market is exhibiting a supply structure similar to a cycle bottom, but a key capitulation indicator has yet to confirm the formation of a bottom.

Long-term holder realized supply is increasing. This indicator measures the total realized supply entering the long-term holder cohort, which historically tends to climb rapidly near cycle bottoms. Currently, this indicator stands at approximately 12.17 million Coins, having reached a local peak of 12.42 million Coins in early June. Although it has slightly retreated since then, it still shows strong year-over-year growth. Over the past Year, this indicator has more than doubled, indicating that more and more Coins are transitioning from short-term traders to more stable long-term holders.

This shift is typically seen as a sign of increased market resilience. An increase in long-term holder supply means more Bitcoin is exiting active circulation, potentially reducing selling pressure, and also signifies that the market is undergoing coin accumulation.

However, the issue is that this indicator has not yet reached the levels seen near previous bear market bottoms. Near the 2015 bottom, long-term holder realized supply was around 15 million Coins; the 2018-19 bottom was approximately 16 million Coins; and the 2022-23 bottom was close to 19.7 million Coins. In comparison, the current 12.17 million Coins, while moving in the right direction, is still some distance from the historical bottom confirmation range.

A greater divergence comes from the selling pressure indicator. This indicator only activates when the overall market is in a loss-making state, i.e., when NUPL is negative, and measures realized loss pressure by the deviation of SOPR from 1. In other words, it captures the moment when the market truly enters a phase of pressure release, loss-making selling, and capitulation.

Currently, this indicator has not shown a signal for 1256 Days, marking the longest silent period in Bitcoin's history. The last signal appeared on January 13, 2023, at the tail end of the previous bear market. Previous cycle bottoms, including those in 2015, 2018-19, 2020, and 2022, all saw frequent selling pressure signals, with peaks typically ranging from 15% to nearly 32%. In the cycle bottom region of December 2018, this indicator reached a historical high of about 32%.

Therefore, the current market presents an incomplete bottom structure: the supply side is maturing, long-term holders are accumulating Coins, but the capitulation side has not provided confirmation. The market appears to be in a phase of holding, accumulation, and coin redistribution rather than a classic cycle bottom that has completed its final pressure release.

The conclusion is that Bitcoin does exhibit some "bottoming" characteristics, but it is missing the most crucial element of historical cycles: the final capitulation signal driven by loss-making selling. Stronger confirmation may require one of two conditions to be met: long-term holder realized supply further increasing to above 15 million Coins, or the selling pressure indicator reactivating, indicating that the market has experienced a true pressure release.