BlockBeats News, on June 25, Tom Lee stated that the market is still digesting the remarks made after Kevin Warsh's first press conference last week and is repricing the macro environment. Oil prices have retreated over the past week, and the war premium is shrinking. Current oil prices are not far from the pre-conflict level of around $65, indicating that the market believes related war risks are decreasing. However, on the other hand, the 10-year US Treasury yield is still trending upwards, currently around 4.5%, higher than the pre-war level of about 4.2%. The main headwinds facing the market recently have shifted from oil prices to yields.

Tom Lee pointed out that the market is not only focusing on the 10-year US Treasury yield but is also beginning to price in the possibility that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates. According to federal funds futures, the market is currently pricing in two rate hikes within the year. Bank of America further predicted today that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates three times this year, in September, October, and December, respectively.

Jeffrey Gundlach often emphasizes paying attention to the 2-year US Treasury yield, as it typically leads the Federal Reserve and signals the Fed's policy direction. From 2023 to 2025, the relationship between the 2-year US Treasury yield and the federal funds rate indicated that Fed policy was overly tight and required rate cuts. However, this relationship has recently reversed, implying that the Federal Reserve needs two rate hikes to catch up with the 2-year US Treasury yield. He believes that, at least for now, yields have become a market headwind.