CoinEx News: 21Shares said in its mid-year report that Bitcoin's four-year cycle has not broken, even after BTC fell about 50% from its October 2025 peak near $126,000; its base case is a year-end recovery toward $100,000. On June 25, Chinese miner Jiang Zhuoer turned bearish, citing stress at Strategy — the largest corporate Bitcoin holder — whose stock trades below the value of its bitcoin and whose STRC preferred shares are under pressure; he puts a possible BTC bottom at $42,000-$44,000 in October-December 2026.

For BTC holders, the two calls rest on different yardsticks — 21Shares on the cycle repeating, Jiang on financial strain at Strategy — so the concrete downside to track is whether that strain forces Strategy to sell its Bitcoin.