BlockBeats News, July 24th, the long-awaited Clarity Act in the U.S. crypto industry faced another setback in the legislative process. With Senate Majority Leader John Thune indicating that the bill is unlikely to receive a vote before the August recess, market expectations for its passage this year have significantly diminished.

Polymarket data shows that as of July 24th, the probability of the Clarity Act passing this year is around 37%, much lower than the levels that once exceeded 80% in the spring.

The Clarity Act aims to establish a clear regulatory framework for digital assets and promote the integration of crypto assets into the mainstream financial system. While there is some bipartisan consensus on the key provisions of the bill, the issue of conflicts of interest involving former President Trump and his family's crypto-related business has become a major sticking point in legislative negotiations.

The Democrats have demanded stricter ethical provisions in the bill to restrict the President and federal officials from profiting from crypto assets. Trump had previously expressed clear opposition to such restrictions, but the Republican stance has recently shifted, leading to a revised version of the bill that includes provisions banning elected officials from profiting from crypto asset transactions.

However, Democrats argue that the new ethical provisions have significant loopholes and fail to effectively address the issue of the Trump family profiting significantly from meme coins and other crypto projects.

Ron Hammond, the Policy Director at the crypto firm Wintermute, stated that Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer recently called on the Democrats to focus on Trump and related corruption issues ahead of the midterm elections, which may reduce the Democratic support for the Clarity Act.

Hammond believes that opponents from the banking and crypto industries have slowed down the progress of the bill by delaying the agenda, but he still mentioned, "The votes are there; it's just that electoral politics have a bigger effect."

Analysts point out that even if the Clarity Act does not pass before the current recess, there is still a window until the end of the year for Congress to act. However, with important issues such as government funding and national defense still pending, the bill driven by the crypto industry may face scheduling pressures. As the midterms in November approach and the future power dynamics of the U.S. Congress evolve, it could further impact the progress of crypto regulatory legislation.