BlockBeats News, June 11th - According to Mike McGlone, Senior Commodity Strategist at Bloomberg, during the previous bull cycle, Bitcoin notably outperformed risk assets. However, in the current phase, this leadership relationship may be extending in the opposite direction. In his latest commentary, he stated that Bitcoin had previously "led risk assets higher," and now "may also lead them lower," suggesting that based on its comparison chart with the S&P 500 on the same scale (amplified by 10 times), 2026 could be an overall negative-beta asset year.

He emphasized that since 2009, the S&P 500 has only seen annual total returns decline in 2018 and 2022, both of which coincided with Bitcoin's bear markets and corresponded to the U.S. midterm election cycle. He believes the current market's distinctiveness lies in the overlapping structural pressures: inflation has re-emerged as a political focal point, stock market volatility has remained low for an extended period, but risk metrics for major commodities such as gold and oil have continued to rise, making this combination of "low-volatility equities + high-risk commodities" historically rare.

Furthermore, McGlone also stated that since 2026, both Bitcoin and gold have displayed signs of "mean reversion," indicating that the risk asset cycle may be entering a phase of repricing. He pointed out that compared to the peak around 2025 (approximately $126,000), Bitcoin has retraced about 50%, while the total return index of U.S. Treasuries may be forming a cyclical bottom from the low range dating back to 1983.

The current market still lacks key confirmation signals: namely, a retreat in the S&P 500 to GDP ratio from levels close to those seen since 1928. If this indicator starts to turn, it could signal a more widespread structural adjustment in the risk asset cycle.