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Pre-IPO Bull vs Bear Debate on SpaceX: Morning Star and the "Valuation Godfather" Deem It Overpriced, While Long-Term Narrative Enjoys Market Optimism
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BlockBeats News, June 12th, Today SpaceX IPO priced at $135, corresponding to a valuation of about $1.77 trillion. Well-known institutions and analysts have the following predictions for its performance after listing:

Morningstar Analyst Nicholas Owens: Morningstar has set SpaceX's fair value at around $780 billion, about 55% lower than the IPO valuation of about $1.77 trillion, believing that the shares are overvalued in almost any scenario in the near to mid-term. It is expected that the early opening may see support or even a brief rally due to very low liquidity and rapid index inclusion (Nasdaq 100, etc.), but overall, it is advised for investors to avoid chasing the high opening price, wait for the hype to fade, and enter at a lower price for a more attractive long-term return.

New York University Professor and "Valuation Guru" Aswath Damodaran: Values SpaceX's equity at $1.25-$1.3 trillion, much lower than the IPO price. Aswath believes the current pricing is too high and will not buy immediately (but also will not short), predicting a significant post-listing pullback similar to Facebook or Uber (which once dropped over 50%). It is recommended to patiently wait for a lower entry point. The AI business makes the SpaceX story more grandiose but also increases volatility, putting short-term performance under pressure.

CNBC's "Mad Money" Host Jim Cramer: Maintains a cautious stance on fundamentals, finding it difficult to assess a valuation of around $2 trillion, about 100 times the sales. Predicts that due to retail FOMO, very low liquidity, and passive index fund inflows, the opening may see a huge surge, possibly doubling to a market cap of about $4 trillion. However, he warns that this may be a speculative bubble that could be disruptive to the market. It is strongly advised for retail investors to avoid chasing highs, as the long-term loss pressure from the business could lead to a pullback.

New York independent investment bank Oppenheimer Analyst Timothy Horan: Given an outperform rating compared to the broader market, with a target price of $190, representing about a 41% upside from the $135 IPO price. Highly bullish on SpaceX's vertical integration in rockets, Starlink, chips, and AI, expecting the total market size to reach $10 trillion by 2035. Despite the volatility risk, it is believed that there will be support after the opening and a significant rise, with optimistic long-term growth prospects.

Chief Equity Strategist at Chicago's independent research firm Zacks, John Blank: Anticipates a significant decline after SpaceX's listing, and if the stock price falls 40-60% within a few months, it will trigger downward revisions in earnings forecasts. John sees this as a potential market top signal, expecting short-term pressure on performance. It is advised for investors to remain cautious and wait for clearer fundamental validation.

University of Florida IPO Expert Jay Ritter: The "Elon Musk Effect" will lead to high volatility. There is substantial downside risk at the current high valuation, as Musk's dual-class share structure gives him significant control and capital may be prioritized for long-term projects such as Mars rather than direct shareholder returns. A correction may occur after the market debut, and investors should be cautious of governance and capital allocation risks.

Tech Analysis Firm Future Group CEO Daniel Newma: With a 5-year perspective, investors holding SpaceX stock will see strong performance. The $135 pricing may seem expensive a year from now but will appear cheap in five years. Daniel plans to make a small initial purchase on the opening day to hedge against short-term misjudgments but expects better entry opportunities within the first 12 months. He has a strong long-term bullish outlook on Starlink and AI growth.

Los Angeles Wade Bush Securities Analyst Dan Ives: The SpaceX IPO is a "watershed" event for the market, and he holds an overall optimistic view. The likelihood of a Tesla merger with SpaceX in 2027 is very high, with a probability of over 80%. Dan believes there will be benefits post-listing from the long-term narrative around AI and the space ecosystem, driven by strong retail and institutional demand. The performance is expected to be promising.

Fuente:BlockBeats

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