BlockBeats News, June 13th. According to the latest study by Galaxy Research, due to the lack of clear speculative signs at the top of this Bitcoin cycle, the BTC cycle low may not dip to lower levels as in previous bear markets. The potential bottom range may be between $62,000 and the network realized price of $53,600. Galaxy Research Director Alex Thorn analyzed previous BTC cycle tops and bottoms, stating that the Bitcoin four-year cycle still closely follows the historical timing. He pointed out that the percentage decline from peak to low in each BTC cycle is progressively narrowing, with early cycles dropping by 85% and 84% respectively, 77% in 2022, and 51% in 2026.

Thorn believes that the BTC top in October 2025 differs from previous cycle tops. Out of 11 traditional top indicators, only 2 were triggered; the widely followed Pi Cycle Top indicator failed to trigger for the first time. The peak MVRV ratio for BTC was 2.29, while the previous cycle's peak range was between 2.93 and 5.91. However, the report also noted that several key bottom signals have yet to emerge. Currently, only 4 out of 13 bottom indicators have been triggered, with most stronger signals yet to appear. From a timing perspective, previous cycle bottoms occurred approximately 12 to 13 months after the market top, while the current pullback has lasted about 8 months. Thorn stated that based on the current $53,600 cost benchmark, Galaxy estimates the baseline bottom range to be between $40,000 and $46,000; a more profound "washout scenario" points to $30,000 to $37,000; if the decline is shallower, it may hold around $51,000 to $54,000.

CryptoQuant data shows that BTC is currently in a valuation range historically associated with major bear market lows. BTC's recent trading price is close to $59,000, about 9% higher than the $53,600 realized price. On the demand side, CryptoQuant indicates that speculative futures demand combined with apparent spot demand saw a weekly decline of 652,000 BTC, the largest drop since January 2022. The institution's one-year demand indicator has also turned negative, indicating that the number of BTC buyers is lower than a year ago.