BlockBeats News, June 17th - Bitcoin rebounded by 6% over the past week, rising to around $65,000 after recording double-digit declines for two consecutive weeks. Research and brokerage firm K33 stated that the proportion of BTC supply held by long-term holders has reached a historical high, potentially indicating that the bear market is nearing its end. K33's Head of Research, Vetle Lunde, mentioned that a significant feature of the 2024-2025 cycle is the reactivation and potential selling of a large amount of long-dormant Bitcoin as the price hits new highs, but since 2026, the reactivation of BTC dormant for over two years has been unusually low. As of June 6th, only 218,421 BTC had been reactivated; in contrast, by June 6th, 2024, 1.18 million BTC had been reactivated. Lunde stated that this shows a significant weakening of on-chain selling pressure in 2026 compared to the past two years.

Lunde mentioned that the decrease in old coin activity indicates that long-term holders have a lower willingness to sell, and patient holders are continuing to absorb the supply, providing another signal that the bear market may be nearing its end. He further noted that currently, 79% of the circulating BTC supply is held by long-term holders, reaching a historical high, reflecting ongoing accumulation and a gradual shift in the market environment towards a constructive outlook. However, not all analysts are equally optimistic. Wintermute, Glassnode, and Bitfinex have recently warned that ETF fund flows, stablecoin growth, and institutional demand are still insufficient to confirm a sustained market reversal, with some still believing that BTC could drop to $30,000.

Lunde stated that following the SpaceX IPO and the temporary US-Iran peace agreement, market attention will turn to the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. This will be the first meeting after Kevin Warsh took office as the new Federal Reserve Chairman. Lunde mentioned that BTC's 30-day correlation with the S&P 500 is close to 0.6, and any changes in Federal Reserve communication could have a significant impact on BTC, which is usually particularly sensitive to macro changes during a bear market.