BlockBeats News, June 22nd. Bitcoin remained around $64,000 on Monday, stuck in a range-bound state. Last week, the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, formally ending over 100 days of conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. This development briefly pushed Bitcoin above $67,000, but the rally was soon suppressed by the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve.

On the policy front, the new Fed Chair Wash signaled a hawkish tone for the first time in the FOMC meeting. CME FedWatch shows a 36% probability of a rate hike at the July meeting, with the market expecting at least one 25 basis point hike this year. The year-on-year CPI for May reached 4.2%, well above the Fed's 2% target, completely extinguishing any rate cut expectations. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) subsequently rose to the 100.6 to 100.8 range, historically suppressing Bitcoin.

On the funding side, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF has seen net outflows for six consecutive weeks, with a total outflow of $63.5 billion over the past 30 days, setting a record. Signs of institutional fund inflows remain uncertain.

In the options market, the 1-month implied volatility is around 39%, while the realized volatility has risen to above 42%. The actual price volatility has exceeded market pricing, indicating exhaustion rather than directional confidence. Below $62,000, there is an accumulation of approximately $1.8 billion in put options, and once the price falls below this level, the selling pressure from market makers forced to hedge will further accelerate the decline, potentially triggering a cascade down to $60,000.

Analysts have recently defined Bitcoin's range as between $60,000 and $67,000, believing the market is in a "state of equilibrium between support and resistance forces".