BlockBeats News, April 17th, according to CoinDesk, Bitcoin is currently trading at $74,700, down 0.4% in the last 24 hours. News of a US-Iran ceasefire negotiation boosted risk sentiment, with the S&P 500 index hitting a new all-time high on Thursday. Trump stated that the prospect of a permanent ceasefire between the US and Iran "looks very optimistic," claiming that Iran has agreed to abandon its nuclear ambitions, hand over nuclear materials, and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. However, Iran has not confirmed these concessions.

Meanwhile, the market is closely watching the structural signals behind Bitcoin's price movement. ZeroStack CEO Daniel Reis-Faria stated: "With the funding rate so negative, it indicates a heavily short-biased market. If Bitcoin continues to rise in this context, a significant number of short positions may face forced liquidation, further accelerating the price increase." He expects that if the short base is squeezed, Bitcoin could reach $125,000 in the next 30 to 60 days.

On-chain analyst CryptoVizArt provided another perspective: Bitcoin's "True Market Mean" (TMM) shows that the average holding cost of active holders is currently above the current price, putting holders at an overall unrealized loss. Since 2016, a sustained drop below this mean has often coincided with Bitcoin's most severe downward cycles, including the bear market from 2018 to 2019 (with a maximum drawdown of 57% lasting 282 days) and the downturn after the Luna and FTX collapse from 2022 to 2023 (with a maximum drawdown of 56% lasting 339 days).

Analysts point out that these two assessments are not mutually exclusive—the short-squeeze scenario driven by the extremely negative funding rate and the structural pressure of overall holder unrealized losses can coexist. The former may trigger a sharp rise, but it could ultimately be absorbed by the latter through selling pressure. The future direction may depend on whether the US-Iran ceasefire can persist after the upcoming week.