BlockBeats News, May 21st, CryptoQuant's research lead Julio Moreno stated that Bitcoin's current trend may be replaying the bear market movement from March 2022. Bitcoin recently rebounded to nearly $82,400, close to the 200-day moving average, before facing resistance and falling back to around $76,000. Moreno pointed out that in March 2022, Bitcoin also rebounded by about 43% from a low point to touch the 200-day moving average, and then re-entered a downtrend; in the current cycle since the low point in April 2026, Bitcoin has risen by about 37% and encountered resistance at the same key level.

Moreno stated that during a bear market phase, the 200-day moving average has long served as a dividing line between "rebound rally and trend continuation." If the price fails to effectively break through this average, it often means that the bear market structure still remains intact, serving as one of the most important technical bearish signals. At the same time, Bitcoin demand has turned negative again. The perpetual contract speculative demand that previously drove the rise from April to May significantly slowed down after Bitcoin broke above $82,000, with traders starting to close leveraged long positions, and spot demand also shrinking simultaneously.

Furthermore, Coinbase's Bitcoin premium index has remained negative during this rebound and subsequent pullback, indicating that U.S. institutional and retail funds have not substantially returned to the market. Historically, sustained Bitcoin bull markets are usually accompanied by a positive turn in the Coinbase premium. CryptoQuant's bull market sentiment index has dropped from 40 to 20, entering the "extremely bearish" zone, similar to the levels seen when Bitcoin fell to $60,000 to $66,000 in February and March 2026. Historical data shows that when this index is in the 0 to 20 range, the market tends to experience further declines or prolonged consolidation.

Moreno believes that if Bitcoin continues to pull back, around $70,000 will become a key support level, known as the "trader's on-chain realized price." This level has previously acted as a crucial support or resistance during the bear market rebound stages in October 2025 and January 2026. When the price falls to this area, the unrealized profits of most traders will be close to zero or even negative, reducing selling pressure and helping demand to return and stabilize the market.