BlockBeats News, June 9th. Despite the lack of economic recession and no cooling down of inflation, the demand for funds continues to expand. Iran and Israel engaged in direct conflict for the first time since April, with Houthi forces announcing a complete ban on Israeli vessels passing through the Red Sea, indicating that the Middle East risk has not been truly resolved. Although Trump stepped in to pressure both sides to stop military escalation, there are reports of a potential US-Iran agreement by the end of June. However, the US military intercepted oil tankers heading to Iran, and Israel has maintained a tough stance against Hezbollah, implying that energy supply and geopolitical risk premium will persist in the short term.

Meanwhile, the market's core focus has rapidly shifted to monetary policy. Following strong non-farm payroll data, several Wall Street institutions have begun to revise their previous interest rate cut expectations. From Goldman Sachs canceling its predictions for a rate cut this year, to J.P. Morgan Asset Management believing that the Fed's threshold for a rate hike is decreasing, and with the bond market already reflecting future rate hike risks, funds are now repricing the possibilities of "prolonged high-interest rates" or even "limited rate hikes." The upcoming US CPI release this week will be a critical watershed moment. If energy prices continue to transmit to consumer inflation, market bets on a hawkish shift in the Fed's policy may further intensify.

On the other hand, the AI industry is entering a new round of capital competition. OpenAI has formally submitted its IPO application, Anthropic is preparing for listing, SpaceX has initiated its IPO roadshow, Google and NVIDIA are continuing to expand their computing power investments, and Google is making large-scale TPU purchases from Intel, indicating that the global AI infrastructure arms race is still accelerating. However, new questions are arising in the market: when interest rates remain high, bond yields continue to rise, and a large number of IPOs and secondary stock offerings flood the market simultaneously, is there enough liquidity in the capital market to support such a massive valuation system?

From a fund structure perspective, the biggest risk at the moment is not just inflation or war, but that global fund demand is beginning to outstrip liquidity supply. AI companies need financing, governments need to issue bonds, energy shocks are driving up inflation, and the Fed is unable to provide the loose market environment that is anticipated. If the market's main theme of the past two years was the growth expectations brought by AI, then what the market truly needs to verify in the coming months is whether these growth stories are sufficient to withstand the pressure of higher funding costs.

As for the crypto market, Bitcoin has currently dropped below the previous range support and completed a liquidity sweep to the downside, with the market now testing a critical demand zone around $62,000. Structurally, the price has retraced to near the key support zone formed in February of this year, reflecting that risk appetite is being suppressed by the macro environment. It's worth noting that if this week's CPI once again exceeds expectations, the market will further strengthen the expectation of a Fed rate hike, and risk assets may face a new round of liquidity pressure; conversely, if inflation data is lower than expected, it could provide a short-term respite for tech stocks and the crypto market, which have recently been reappraised. Market volatility is likely to remain high until the new macro pricing is completed.