BlockBeats News, June 18th — Scott Rubeun, Director of Stock and Equity Derivatives Strategy at Castle Securities, stated that the U.S. stock market may experience a period of increased volatility in the next two weeks, driven more by technical factors rather than fundamental changes. He pointed out that starting from June 19th, the market will see the largest options expiration in history, coupled with end-of-quarter pension portfolio rebalancing and a concentration adjustment in the positions of major investor groups.

He referred to this period as "one of the most critical technical periods of the year," where the importance of fund flows will be significantly higher than fundamental factors. Despite the short-term disruptions, Rubeun advised investors to view the volatility as a "technical phenomenon" and to buy on dips during market pullbacks. He believes that once the next two weeks and the end of the quarter are over, the market environment will significantly improve.

Rubeun stated that retail investor behavior is currently undergoing a change: "Unlike the past, where they only chased high-risk targets, retail investors are increasingly focusing on companies that align with institutional allocations and can drive benchmark index performance." More importantly, U.S. households are currently holding record levels of cash, waiting to enter the market during a pullback. He pointed out that this fund characteristic typically only changes when the Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) rises above 30, while the current VIX is around 16, still at a relatively low level.

Supported by multiple funding sources, Rubeun concludes that the U.S. stock market will continue to rise in the second half of the year.