BlockBeats News, June 23rd, a noticeable shift in the global market has begun: while geopolitical risks remain, the dominance of asset prices is gradually returning to the hands of monetary policy and liquidity environment. The US-Iran technical talks have officially started in Switzerland, and the US has simultaneously issued a 60-day temporary license allowing Iran to resume oil sales. Both parties have also made progress on the Strait of Hormuz passage mechanism and partial asset unfreezing. Market concerns about energy supply disruptions continue to decline, with Qatar confirming that the natural gas plant explosion was merely an industrial accident that does not affect LNG exports, further strengthening supply recovery expectations.

However, the market's focus has gradually shifted to the Federal Reserve. The aftermath of the first meeting under Chair Powell is still unfolding, with the latest report from a US bank even suggesting that the Fed may raise interest rates three times this year, totaling 75 basis points. At the same time, more Fed officials are supporting the reform to cut forward guidance internally, and the market is starting to accept a new environment of reduced future monetary policy transparency and increased volatility.

This repricing has already been reflected in global asset markets. The US dollar remains strong, the yen has once again approached historic lows after sharp fluctuations, and emergency communication between the Japanese and US Treasury secretaries indicates that exchange rate risks are escalating. On the other hand, high-growth assets with high valuations are starting to face pressure. SpaceX has dropped for the third consecutive trading day, with its market value plunging significantly from its peak, reflecting that as the market begins to reevaluate the cost of capital, forward-looking growth stories no longer enjoy the valuation premium they once had.

For the crypto market, this signifies a shift in risk sources. In the past few weeks, the market has mainly traded war, energy, and shipping risks; now, as the situation in the Middle East gradually shifts towards a negotiation framework, the market is refocusing on US dollar liquidity, US bond yields, and the Fed's policy direction. If rate hike expectations continue to rise, funds will be more inclined to flow into the dollar and high-yield fixed-income assets. To attract incremental funds again, the crypto market will need to wait for new turning points in the liquidity environment.

In the short term, the easing of Middle East risks helps to curb energy prices, but what truly affects the next phase of risk asset performance is no longer whether the Strait of Hormuz is open, but whether the market is starting to believe that the Fed will enter another rate hike cycle. This also means that the core of market volatility in the coming weeks will gradually shift from geopolitical issues to inflation data, employment data, and the Fed's policy signals themselves.