BlockBeats News, on June 29, as Bitcoin continues to pull back, discussions about the bottom of this cycle are heating up. According to comprehensive multi-party analysis, Bitcoin may be gradually approaching the cycle bottom, but short-term, the market still needs to complete further clearing and bottoming out.

Grayscale's latest research report believes that Bitcoin's pullback of over 50% from its peak of approximately $125,000 in October 2025, and its fall below $60,000, is still a cyclical adjustment within a long-term bull market, rather than a trend reversal. The report points out that the current decline is mainly influenced by factors such as the Federal Reserve's hawkish policy expectations, uncertainty surrounding the legislative prospects of the "CLARITY Act," leverage pressure from Strategy, and concerns about quantum computing security. Grayscale believes that if the bill proceeds smoothly, leverage pressure on digital asset companies eases, and the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate hikes, Bitcoin may be approaching the bottom of this cycle. Conversely, if regulatory progress is hindered, digital asset companies continue to deleverage, and interest rate hikes are added, the market may still have room for further downside. However, compared to historical cycles, the institutional capital base in this round is more stable, and the magnitude of pullback is expected to be less than the previous bear market decline of about 80%. The long-term outlook for public blockchains and digital assets remains optimistic.

Market participants' judgments on the bottom range are also becoming more concentrated. Yi Lihua, founder of Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital), stated that this decline has entered the third wave of回调 since October 2025. If historical volatility patterns are followed, July to August may become the last and most valuable window for positioning in this bear market. He believes that the trend of US stocks, changes in Strategy's balance sheet, and the Federal Reserve's attitude towards inflation and interest rates remain the core variables determining market direction. At the same time, caution is needed for potential black swan events at the end of a bear market. Based on historical drawdowns, a 60% to 66% pullback from the high of $126,000 would correspond to a price of approximately $51,000 to $43,000, a range still considered a potential extreme pressure area.

Crypto analyst Murphy, based on the "post-halving MVRV overlap curve," believes that the overall volatility of this cycle has significantly converged, with both highs and lows weaker than historical bull-bear cycles. The current corresponding MVRV range is approximately 1.12 to 1.30, implying that Bitcoin's reasonable operating range is around $59,000 to $70,000. The probability of falling below $50,000 in the short term is relatively limited, and the market is more likely to maintain a volatile or weak rebound pattern before July 23rd. Murphy further pointed out that the real bottoming-out phase worth paying attention to may begin in late July to late August, with a more important directional choice expected in September to October. He believes that Bitcoin below $60,000 already possesses significant long-term allocation value, but patience is still required at this stage, waiting for the market to complete its bottom construction.