BlockBeats News, June 29th, SemiAnalysis stated in a post that the latest US economic data contains a significant amount of noise. The upward revision of Q1 GDP was mainly due to a decrease in imports. One-third of the May personal income growth came from one-time farm aid, while PCE inflation surge was driven by energy prices. The sharp decline in durable goods orders was due to a reversal in aircraft orders. All these special factors will mean-revert, and the overall economic picture will change after stripping them out.

Tariff-induced goods inflation is a one-time price level shock that will exit the year-over-year data in about 12 months. However, consumer actual purchasing power will be permanently lower and will not recover as the inflation rate falls. Goods inflation has currently surpassed services inflation, reflecting the transmission effect of tariffs.

SemiAnalysis believes that despite macro data fluctuations, AI capital expenditure is a genuine and sustained trend. Equipment and software contributed 1.55 percentage points in Q1 GDP, four times that of consumer contribution. Core capital goods orders increased by 1.6%. AI data center construction is rapidly expanding its share in the economy and will not mean-revert.