BlockBeats News, June 23rd, Grayscale's Director of Research Zach Pandl wrote that if the Federal Reserve postpones rate hikes, Bitcoin may see an uptrend. Since the end of February when the Iran conflict started, US stocks have risen by 9%, Bitcoin has fallen by 1%, and gold has dropped by 20%. Despite significant AI-related spending supporting the stock market, Bitcoin and gold have lagged behind, partly due to market expectations of the Fed potentially raising rates to combat inflation. Grayscale does not agree with this expectation, and its base case scenario is that the Fed will postpone rate hikes. If this judgment is correct, the price of Bitcoin may catch up with the stock market.

Zach Pandl stated that since the Iran conflict began, the 1-year Federal Reserve interest rate outlook has risen by about 60 basis points, with about half of Fed officials believing that rate hikes in 2026 could be appropriate. The European Central Bank has already raised rates. As non-interest-bearing monetary assets, gold and Bitcoin compete with fiat currencies, and an increase in real interest rates of fiat currencies would raise the opportunity cost of holding Bitcoin and gold, thereby suppressing demand.

Bitcoin serves a dual purpose in portfolios: on the one hand, it is a scarce digital commodity that can serve as a long-term store of value; on the other hand, it is a public blockchain asset that can provide exposure to the long-term growth of the crypto industry. Therefore, Bitcoin's function in a portfolio is similar but not entirely equivalent to that of gold and growth stocks. Zach Pandl stated that if the likelihood of rate hikes decreases in line with Grayscale's base case, Bitcoin may catch up with the stock market performance.