BlockBeats News, July 22nd. Well-known trader Killa (@KillaXBT) posted that in Bitcoin's historical bear markets, there is usually a completion of a 5-wave correction, forming two significant highs. The first high often occurs after a strong bounce from the bottom, which is commonly perceived as the "complacent high" signaling the return of the bull market. Subsequently, the price usually continues to test new lows.

He pointed out that a similar structure appeared in the cycles of 2014, 2022, and 2026. After the complacent high is formed, the market usually experiences a "dead cat bounce" and establishes a temporary bottom. As market sentiment worsens and short positions pile up, a short squeeze then drives a price rebound, with the final bottom typically forming after the second significant retracement.

Killa believes that BTC has already passed the bottom formed by the "dead cat bounce" and has completed a 5-wave correction structure similar to past cycles. From a structural perspective, the correction wave has ended, and the low point may have been established.

However, he remains cautious about the timing. Previous bear markets have usually taken about 365 days to form the final bottom, while if the low point of this cycle has already occurred, it has only lasted about 260 days, approximately 100 days earlier than historical cycles. Currently, it is still a 50/50 call, but the likelihood of setting a higher low is greater compared to a significant new low.