TL;DR

• SOL's short-term relative strength has improved further versus BTC and ETH, and the 120D window has also begun to repair. The longer-cycle picture is still damaged: the 1Y and 2Y windows do not yet show a clean full-cycle recovery.
• Solana's stronger on-chain case is liquidity-led: stablecoin supply and DEX activity have expanded materially over the last three years, but DEX volume alone is not enough unless stablecoin liquidity remains deep.
• For traders, the better framework is not a single-number forecast. It is a confirmation map: relative strength, on-chain liquidity, and derivatives volatility regimes should all be monitored before treating SOL's rebound as durable.

SOL Price Analysis: Short-Term Strength Needs Cycle Context

SOL's current setup is a tension between short-term leadership and longer-cycle damage.

On CoinEx spot data as of July 1, 2026, SOL gained 13.8% over the latest 7-day window while BTC and ETH were both negative. Over 30 days, SOL was still down 4.7%, but it held up far better than BTC and ETH, which were down 16.0% and 19.8%, respectively. That is the kind of short-term relative strength traders usually notice first.

The update is that the improvement is no longer only a 7D story. SOL's 120D drawdown narrowed to 10.9%, slightly better than BTC and clearly better than ETH. The problem is that the longer windows are still less forgiving. SOL was down 47.3% over 1Y and 47.2% over 2Y in the same dataset. The 3Y* boundary reference looks strong, but it reflects the recovery from a much lower base and is not a full three-calendar-year window. In other words, SOL is showing a stronger tactical repair, but the market has not fully repaired the damage from the broader cycle.

This is why recent catalysts matter, but should not be overstated. The market has more reasons to pay attention to Solana than it did in the last cycle. U.S. brokerage access expanded after the REX-Osprey Solana + Staking ETF started trading in July 2025. Stablecoin and payment narratives have also become more relevant: reported that Visa's USDC settlement program included Cross River Bank and Lead Bank using Solana, with broader U.S. availability planned through 2026.

Those catalysts can support attention, but they do not automatically create durable demand for SOL. CoinEx Research's view is that the market needs confirmation from liquidity, relative strength, and positioning data before treating the move as a cycle repricing.

Solana Relative Strength: BTC, ETH, And On-Chain Liquidity

SOL's relative performance depends heavily on the benchmark and the time window.

Against BTC, SOL outperformed over 7D, 30D, and 120D, but still underperformed over 1Y and 2Y. Against ETH, SOL looked stronger over 7D, 30D, 120D, and 2Y, but still lagged over 1Y. That split matters because it shows SOL is not simply "strong" or "weak." It is behaving like a high-beta L1 asset whose relative leadership can change quickly depending on whether traders are comparing it to BTC's liquidity premium or ETH's smart-contract benchmark.

The stronger confirmation signal is on-chain liquidity. DefiLlama data used by CoinEx Research shows Solana stablecoin supply rising from about $1.54 billion in early July 2023 to about $15.54 billion by the week ending June 28, 2026. Weekly DEX volume also moved from roughly $319 million to about $16.2 billion over the same window, although the peak week in January 2025 was far higher at about $107.9 billion.

That creates a more balanced read. Solana is not only seeing episodic trading bursts; it has built a much deeper stablecoin base. But the January 2025 DEX-volume spike also warns against treating every volume surge as durable adoption. For SOL, the healthier setup is when DEX volume expands while stablecoin supply remains elevated. If volume rises but liquidity depth stalls, the move looks more speculative.

SOL Funding Rate: What Derivatives Positioning Really Shows

The derivatives picture argues for caution in how traders read funding.

We tried to test whether SOL funding could be read as a directional return signal. The result was weak. In the CoinEx SOLUSDT sample from July 1, 2025 to July 1, 2026, the correlation between 7D average funding and same-day, next-day, 3-day-forward, and 7-day-forward returns was close to zero.

That does not make funding useless. It changes what the indicator is useful for. When we compared the absolute size of 7D average funding pressure with 7D average absolute daily returns, the relationship was more meaningful. High absolute funding regimes were associated with wider realized price movement: the high absolute-funding group averaged about 3.26% 7D average absolute daily return, compared with about 2.71% for lower absolute-funding periods.

The trading implication is not "positive funding means price up" or "negative funding means price down." The better read is that funding extremes can flag crowded or stressed positioning, where volatility risk may rise and clean trend signals become harder to separate from leverage-driven movement.

This also fits SOL's broader market structure. Solana often attracts fast-moving capital because it sits at the intersection of L1 beta, memecoin activity, DeFi liquidity, stablecoin flows, and ETF-style access narratives. That makes funding useful as a pressure gauge, but not as a standalone strategy signal.

Solana Trading Strategy: Three SOL Scenarios To Monitor

For traders, SOL's next move is best framed through scenarios rather than a single forecast.

The core takeaway is that SOL's recovery has real support, but it is not yet a simple all-clear signal. Short-term relative strength is constructive, and the latest 120D data is more supportive than the prior refresh. Stablecoin liquidity and DEX activity give the bullish case more substance. But the longer-cycle drawdown and funding-volatility relationship argue against reading any single indicator in isolation.

CoinEx Research's base framework is therefore conditional: SOL's market structure improves if relative strength broadens beyond short windows, on-chain liquidity remains deep, and funding extremes do not become the main driver of volatility. If those conditions fail, the rebound is more likely to be a tactical bounce than a durable cycle repricing.

Disclaimer: This content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Information may be incomplete or inaccurate. Please do your own research; the author assumes no responsibility for losses.