On May 7, TON rose more than 100% from the first available CoinEx price point after Pavel Durov's May 4 announcement. That move was the market paying upfront for a cleaner TON story: Telegram is taking a more direct role, the network is faster and cheaper to use, and ecosystem tokens are once again trading as high-beta expressions of Telegram distribution.

However, the harder question is whether that distribution becomes durable usage and DeFi depth. CoinEx Research follows that thread from price repricing, to ecosystem beta, to long-window network activity, to the liquidity and retention tests that still need to be passed.

TON Price Rally: Why Telegram's Validator Shift Matters

CoinEx Research views the latest TON rally as a governance and distribution repricing. The market is reacting to three linked catalysts that explain why price moved before the usage data fully confirmed the thesis.

First, Telegram is moving closer to TON's infrastructure layer. If Telegram becomes the largest validator and takes a more direct role in the roadmap, investors may price TON less like a standalone chain competing for attention and more like a network with embedded distribution through a billion-user messaging platform. That is powerful, but it also changes the risk profile because TON becomes more dependent on Telegram's operational choices.

Second, the technical backdrop improved before the announcement. TON's Catchain 2.0 upgrade is live on mainnet, with TON documentation stating that block interval fell from about 2.5 seconds to roughly 400 milliseconds and target finalization lag fell from about 10 seconds to around 1 second. That matters because Telegram-native payments, mini apps, gaming, and trading flows are only compelling if the user experience feels instant.

Third, liquidity rotated into ecosystem beta. When a large-cap network token rallies on a clear catalyst, smaller ecosystem tokens often move more aggressively because they are perceived as higher-beta expressions of the same theme. That beta rotation is the next test: it can signal renewed risk appetite, but it can also detach from actual user demand.

Event-Window Returns: Repricing Plus Ecosystem Beta

CoinEx Market page shows that TON rose sharply after the May 4 catalyst, while several ecosystem tokens outperformed over the same window. The table is not just a ranking of returns. It is the first evidence that the market repriced the base network and then reached for more speculative TON beta.

Token	Current Price	May 4 Event Window	24h	7d	30d
TON	$2.73	+99.00%	+22.27%	+107.77%	+121.03%
NOT	$0.00064523	+62.21%	+16.61%	+67.41%	+87.83%
DOGS	$0.000087620	+175.05%	+64.85%	+184.63%	+225.21%
STON	$1.06	+214.68%	+7.84%	+217.18%	+219.08%
REDO	$0.15659	+110.47%	-10.30%	+267.06%	+495.43%
CATI	$0.071611	+19.29%	+14.12%	+42.67%	+36.53%

source: CoinEx; Data as of May 7,2025

The table shows two things. TON's own move is large enough to suggest the market is repricing the base network, not just trading isolated ecosystem news. But the strongest returns came from higher-beta ecosystem assets such as STON, DOGS, and REDO. That usually indicates speculative breadth: investors are not only buying the validator-shift story, they are also paying for optionality across TON-native tokens.

For TON, this is constructive but not sufficient. A broad ecosystem rally can pull attention, liquidity, and developers back into the chain. It can also reverse quickly if users treat the ecosystem only as a trade around Telegram headlines. The next question, therefore, is whether TON has a history of turning Telegram-driven attention into real network activity.

TON Network Activity Since 2023: Distribution Spikes, Retention Questions

The long-window activity data answers that question more carefully than the token table can. TonStat all-time daily metrics from June 2023 onward suggest TON's first visible activity inflection began in 2023, but the true mass-user spike arrived in 2024. The chart below shows why we treat 2023 as early proof of distribution, 2024 as the mass-user peak, and 2025-2026 as the retention-test phase.

TON monthly network activity, June 2023 to latest available data.

Because transactions and active wallets move differently, high transaction counts should not be read as broad user retention without wallet-level confirmation.

From June to August 2023, TON daily active wallets averaged about 8,207, with a period high of 14,915 on August 21. From September to December 2023, the average rose to about 14,944, with a high of 84,160 on December 26. This supports the idea that the Telegram bot and early mini-app narrative started to matter, but the data do not show 2023 as the main cycle peak.

The larger phase came in 2024. Daily active wallets averaged about 461,955 during 2024 and peaked at roughly 2.48 million on September 13. TonStat's transaction metric also peaked in 2024, reaching about 18.15 million on September 27. This better matches the mass-user phase built around Notcoin, DOGS, Hamster Kombat, USDT on TON, Telegram-native apps, and tokenized attention loops.

The cooling phase is equally important. Daily active wallets averaged about 149,069 in 2025 and about 111,438 in 2026 year-to-date, with the latest TonStat active-wallet point at 171,116 on April 19. Transaction activity has not collapsed in the same way: TonStat's transaction metric averaged about 2.30 million in 2025 and 2.08 million in 2026 year-to-date, with a recent high of 6.27 million on May 5.

CoinEx Research's interpretation is that TON has proven it can generate distribution-driven spikes, but the chart also warns against treating every spike as durable adoption. If Telegram can convert mini-app users into recurring wallet, payment, trading, and DeFi users, the market may treat TON as a consumer crypto infrastructure asset. If activity remains campaign-driven, the token may continue to trade like a high-beta Telegram narrative rather than a durable fee-generating network.

DeFi Depth: Valuation Moved Faster Than Liquidity

DeFi data points in the same direction as the activity chart, but they still need persistence. DefiLlama shows TON TVL around $92.2 million on May 7, up about 66.1% over 30 days and 54.3% over 90 days. TON DEX daily volume reached about $45.9 million on May 7, a sharp increase from a low base. That is useful confirmation of renewed risk appetite, but one day of DEX volume is not enough to prove structural liquidity depth.

TON DeFi activity vs valuation, latest 30-day window.

The valuation lines moved faster than the DeFi activity lines, so the chart reinforces the need to watch TVL and DEX volume persistence after the May rally. In other words, TON's market cap and FDV have already priced in a stronger distribution story; TVL and DEX volume now need to show that the chain can absorb that attention into deeper financial activity.

Where The TON Thesis Could Break

The three data views narrow the risk set. Price says the market is willing to reprice TON quickly. Network activity says Telegram distribution can create large usage waves. DeFi data say financial depth is improving, but not as quickly as valuation. The thesis breaks if those three lines fail to converge.

The first risk is validator concentration. Telegram becoming TON's largest validator may improve execution speed and strategic clarity, but it can also raise concerns about network neutrality, governance concentration, and regulatory exposure. A more credible roadmap does not automatically mean a more decentralized chain.

The second risk is ecosystem-token reflexivity. DOGS, STON, REDO, NOT, CATI, and HMSTR can rally faster than TON because they are smaller and more narrative-sensitive. The same beta works in reverse if liquidity leaves. Strong ecosystem token performance should therefore be read as a sentiment signal, not proof of fundamental adoption.

The third risk is usage decay. TonStat's 2024 peak shows TON can attract millions of active wallets, but the 2025-2026 average active-wallet data show that activity cooled after the biggest campaign cycles. For a stronger long-term thesis, TON needs recurring behavior that survives after incentives, airdrops, and social-game seasons fade.

The fourth risk is the gap between faster infrastructure and visible app experience. TON's sub-second finality upgrade is meaningful, but TON documentation also notes that applications must adapt indexers, APIs, and UI layers to surface the speed improvement. If apps do not integrate the faster stack well, users may not feel the upgrade.

4 Signals To Validate The TON Thesis

Active wallets after the rally: Daily active wallets need to rise from the 2025-2026 average range and remain elevated, not only spike around campaigns.
DEX volume and TVL persistence: The May 7 DEX volume surge and 30-day TVL rebound need follow-through over several weeks, especially because valuation moved faster than DeFi depth.
Fee and transaction quality: Higher transaction counts should translate into meaningful fees, payments, swaps, or application actions rather than low-value repetitive activity.
Telegram roadmap execution: The market should watch whether Telegram delivers the promised website, developer tools, validator disclosures, and performance upgrades without creating new centralization concerns.

CoinEx Research's base view is that TON has re-entered the market's attention cycle for a stronger reason than a simple token rally. Telegram's deeper role gives the network a clearer distribution and execution story, and the ecosystem-token table shows that investors are willing to pay for that story quickly. The activity chart shows that TON has generated real user waves before, especially in 2024, while the DeFi chart shows that liquidity still needs to catch up with valuation. Until active wallets, DEX liquidity, fees, and app retention confirm the shift, the rally should be read as a powerful repricing of possibility, not final proof of adoption.

Disclaimer: This content is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Information may be incomplete or inaccurate. Please do your own research; the author assumes no responsibility for losses.

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