BlockBeats News, May 12th, CryptoQuant's Bitcoin Bull/Bear Cycle indicator has recently turned green for the first time since 2023, on-chain analyst Julio Moreno stated that this usually indicates the market is transitioning from a bear market structure to a recovery phase.

Moreno pointed out that historically, when this indicator has moved out of the bear market territory and into the "Early Bull" range, it has often meant that the worst of the correction phase is over and the market structure is starting to repair.

However, several analysts emphasize that this indicator is more suitable for determining market phase transitions rather than precise trading signals. Quantum Economics founder Mati Greenspan stated that the main significance of such indicators is to assess whether "Bitcoin has stopped behaving like a bear market asset," and true confirmation still needs to come from sustained demand, improved liquidity, and price holding in key ranges.

Currently, Bitcoin has not yet effectively broken through the $82,000 resistance level. Although it has rebounded by about 35% from its low point of around $60,000 in February this year, the market is still in a tug-of-war state.

Moreno believes that to truly confirm a bull market signal, Bitcoin still needs to digest the current partially "exhausted" indicators while facing the pressure from the Neutral Greed Fear Index and the complex macro environment.

BitMEX co-founder and Maelstrom CIO Arthur Hayes, on the other hand, believes that Bitcoin has already completed a phase of consolidation near $60,000 this year. He stated that once it breaks through $90,000, the market may enter a "breakout phase," with the target set back to the previous high of $126,000. At the same time, analysts also warn that on-chain indicators such as MVRV, NUPL, fundamentally lean more towards a "behavioral cycle framework" and should not be seen as absolute predictive tools.