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Analysis: Three Major Macroeconomic Risks Supersede Bitcoin Regulatory Tailwinds
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BlockBeats News, May 18th. Despite the successful passage of the United States' "Clarity Act" through the Senate Banking Committee last week, bringing the most clear path to date for establishing a comprehensive regulatory framework for the crypto industry, the current macro environment deterioration is suppressing market risk appetite, and crypto assets are similarly under pressure. Crypto analyst Omkar Godbole wrote that the market is currently facing three major risks:

First, significant volatility has risen in the U.S. Treasury market. The MOVE index, which measures U.S. bond volatility, surged 14.7% last Friday to 79.87, hitting a new high since April 7th. As U.S. Treasuries are the core collateral of the global financial system, rising yields and volatility typically dampen the performance of risk assets and trigger widespread deleveraging.

Second, the risk of yen depreciation continues to escalate. The USD/JPY exchange rate has recently risen from 155 to nearly 159, approaching the key level of 160 where the Bank of Japan historically may intervene. Market concerns are that once the Bank of Japan intervenes to raise the yen and potentially triggers the unwinding of "carry trades" funded by low-interest yen, it could lead to global liquidity contraction. QCP Capital stated that the current large crowded yen carry positions, if unwound collectively, could impact global risk assets.

Third, international oil prices continue to rise. Both WTI and Brent crude oil have surpassed $100 per barrel. Fatih Birol, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), warned that due to the Iran conflict and the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, global commercial crude oil inventories are rapidly depleting, and remaining stocks may only last a few weeks. If oil prices continue to rise, it could reignite global inflation and further tighten the financial environment.

Despite the improving regulatory environment, the current macro pressures— including bond market volatility, yen carry trade risks, and oil price increases— have temporarily overshadowed the bullish sentiment in the crypto market, with "macro factors currently taking the lead." Furthermore, since 2026, there have been frequent cross-chain bridge attacks, with hackers having successfully carried out 8 major bridge attacks to steal approximately $328 million in assets, highlighting the continued prominent issue of industry infrastructure security.

ソース:BlockBeats

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