BlockBeats News, June 9, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes stated in his latest article "Reality Test" that if oil prices continue to rise due to the US-Iran conflict, it may trigger an AI stock bubble burst and drag down the entire crypto market. Oil prices and other hydrocarbon energy prices are key variables affecting the investment system. If traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains restricted into the deep second quarter, there may be a sharp rise in hydrocarbon energy and other key commodity spot prices in the third quarter. If oil prices continue to rise and inflation pressure affects the US midterm elections, Trump may shift to a tough stance on data center construction and AI regulation and taxation to solicit voter support. He believes the market may not see it as an election strategy but will actually believe Trump will restrict AI capital expenditure and tax AI companies, thus triggering an AI stock bubble burst.

Hayes also pointed out that AI has absorbed a large amount of USD liquidity in recent years. He estimates that since November 2022, the scale of AI-related debt issuance has been around $15 trillion, while US M2 has increased by about $15 trillion during the same period. He believes this explains why Bitcoin has not been able to rise significantly further in the background of USD liquidity expansion. The three factors that burst the AI bubble include: rising energy costs, the market's inability to absorb the three major AI-related IPOs of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, and Trump's shift to opposing AI. He stated that if AI stocks fall, investors will lack additional funds to buy Bitcoin, banks will also tighten lending, credit contraction will suppress liquidity.

In terms of portfolio, Hayes stated that the Maelstrom stock portfolio holds a large position in US-listed energy producers; it has sold AI-related stocks and divested non-core crypto assets. It sold HYPE, NEAR, and WLD last week, and sold ZEC due to the Orchard Pool exploit. It still holds Bitcoin and ETH. He believes that the bursting of the AI bubble may trigger a financial crisis, leading to a large-scale liquidity expansion, so Bitcoin may experience a dip before a rise; at the same time, he will engage in tactical short selling through derivatives.