BlockBeats News, June 10th: At 20:30 Beijing time tonight, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the May CPI data. The market generally expects the May CPI to rise by 0.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year growth rate of 4.2%. If this expectation is met, it will be the first time the U.S. CPI has returned to above 4% since May 2023, reaching the highest level since April 2023. As for the core CPI, the market expects a 0.3% month-on-month increase in May, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.9%.

The key factor driving this round of inflation is believed to be the rapid rise in energy prices against the backdrop of the Iran conflict. Mark Zandi, Chief Economist at Moody's Analytics, stated that the recent price increase is mainly attributed to government policies, including the U.S.-Iran war. He pointed out that the rise in gasoline and diesel prices will push up the prices of transportation goods from groceries to Amazon packages, and airlines have already passed on higher aviation fuel costs to passengers. Liz Ann Sonders, Chief Investment Strategist at Charles Schwab, stated that the current source of price pressure is no longer limited to the energy sector, but involves factors such as money supply and AI. She believes that even if the conflict is quickly resolved, oil prices may not return to their previous lows as the production side has already been disrupted.

For the Federal Reserve, the upcoming CPI data and the subsequent release of the PPI data will be important references before the June interest rate meeting. In recent weeks, bond traders have increased their bets on rate hikes, with some views suggesting that the Federal Reserve may act as early as September. If the May CPI exceeds expectations significantly, especially if the rising range further expands, it may strengthen the policy rationale for the Fed's rate hike within the year.