BlockBeats News, June 10th. Today, Morgan Stanley responded to the SemiAnalysis research report that triggered a significant pullback in the US stock market yesterday. Morgan Stanley agreed with SemiAnalysis's view that CPO's short-term volume did not meet expectations but still believed in CPO's explosive growth after 2028. They also explicitly refuted the claim that 800V production will be delayed until 2028, as the supply chain research indicated that the 800V cabinet will still proceed as planned in the second half of 2026. Yesterday, the independent research firm SemiAnalysis released a research report stating that two key technology paths for AI data centers have experienced significant delays, which was attributed as one of the main reasons for the sharp pullback in US AI industry stocks.

Regarding CPO, Morgan Stanley's view aligns closely with SemiAnalysis. They estimated that the global optoelectronic engine shipments in 2027 would only be between 6 to 7 million units, far below the market's general expectation of 20 to 30 million units. The core constraints come from TSMC's SoIC yield of only 50%-60% and downstream assembly yield as low as 20%-50%, creating manufacturing bottlenecks that will continue to weigh on short-term sentiment. However, Morgan Stanley maintained a buy rating on core CPO targets such as TSMC, believing that the period from 2026 to 2028 will be a transitional phase with pluggable optical modules, CPO/NPO, and copper interconnect coexisting, and the real explosive growth of CPO will begin in 2028.

On the issue of 800V DC power cabinet, Morgan Stanley's stance is in stark contrast to SemiAnalysis. Their supply chain research showed that the 800V mass production process has not been interrupted. NVIDIA stated at the Taipei GTC conference that the 800V cabinet will be ready for mass production in the third quarter of 2026, with Delta Electronics expected to be the first manufacturer to independently produce 800V cabinets at scale, delivering the first batch of products to leading hyper-scale cloud companies in North America in the fourth quarter of 2026. The fundamental disagreement between the two reports lies in the direction of the ±400V DC scheme – SemiAnalysis believes that ±400V will coexist with 800V in the long term, while Morgan Stanley's research indicates that the primary cloud companies have shifted their R&D focus from ±400V to 800V. This discrepancy will directly impact the competitive landscape of the power supply chain and supplier positioning. The initial shipments from Delta in Q4 2026 and the year-end orders for the ±400V sidecar will be the ultimate proof to validate the two judgments.