BlockBeats News, June 11th, HTX DeepThink columnist and HTX Research researcher Chloe analyzed that after the release of the US CPI data for May, the crypto market has entered a complex stage of "macro pressure rising in the short term, but tightening expectations not completely out of control." The overall CPI rose by 4.2% year-on-year, the largest increase since April 2023, with a 0.5% month-on-month increase, indicating that the energy shock continues to push inflation higher. Against the backdrop of blocked oil tanker passage in the Strait of Hormuz and global energy supply chain tension, energy prices have become the core driver of this round of inflation rebound. In May, energy inflation rose by 3.9% month-on-month and as high as 23.5% year-on-year, with gasoline prices increasing by 7%. In the short term, the market still struggles to break free from the trading logic of "geopolitical conflict - rising oil prices - inflation rebound - hawkish Fed."

However, for the crypto market, the data is not unilaterally bearish. The core CPI only rose by 0.2% month-on-month, lower than the market's expected 0.3%, a significant drop from the previous value of 0.4%, indicating that the energy shock has not yet been widely transmitted to core service and commodity prices, which is also the main reason the market has reduced its interest rate hike bets. Short-term interest rate futures indicate that an interest rate hike at the Fed's meeting next week is almost impossible, with only about a 13% probability of an increase in July. Mainstream assets such as BTC and ETH have not experienced significant sell-offs in the short term, and may even receive some support due to core inflation being lower than expected.

The current core contradiction lies in the fact that liquidity expectations have not deteriorated completely, but risk appetite is still being suppressed by energy inflation and policy uncertainty. If oil prices stabilize in the coming weeks, the market may retrade the logic of "inflation peaking, decreasing probability of an interest rate hike," giving BTC the opportunity to maintain a high-level consolidation or even undergo a corrective rebound; if the issue in the Strait of Hormuz continues to worsen and oil prices rise further, the market will reprice the possibility of a more hawkish Fed, and high-leverage altcoins and high FDV new coins will face greater selling pressure. It is worth noting that after the CPI announcement, gold and silver rose, indicating that the market is still allocating to safe-haven assets rather than fully returning to risk assets, and the crypto market is more likely to show a structural trend: BTC is relatively resistant to decline, ETH follows macro liquidity fluctuations, altcoins continue to differentiate, and funds will prioritize assets with real income, strong trading volume, or those related to AI and Perp DEX.

Overall, this round of CPI data has not directly ended the logic of the crypto market rebound, but it is also not enough to start a full-fledged bull market. The market's short-term focus will shift to tomorrow's PPI data and the Fed meeting chaired by Warsh a week later. If the Fed's language shifts from a loose bias to a neutral or even a tight bias, the crypto market may come under pressure again; if core inflation continues to improve and oil prices are no longer out of control, a weak corrective uptrend may still occur after this round of pullback. Until energy prices and the Fed's stance provide a clearer direction, a neutral to cautious stance may still be the market's main tone.