Analysis: The gap between open-source AI and cutting-edge models has shrunk from 12 months to 4 months. By the end of the year, top-tier intelligence may be available for free download.

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BlockBeats News, June 21st, Crypto and tech analyst Miles Deutscher cited Epoch AI's Capability Index data, indicating that the gap in capabilities between open-source AI models and closed-source cutting-edge large models is rapidly narrowing—this gap was about 12 months two years ago, and has now compressed to about 4 months.

From the development trajectory, open-source models have caught up from Llama 2-70B to GLM 5.2, Kimi K2.6, etc., while closed-source frontiers have evolved to the scale of GPT-5.5 Pro. At the current catching-up rate, Deutscher predicts that in about another 6 months, top-tier intelligence equivalent to Claude Fable level will be freely available for public download in open-source form.

This trend implies that the capability advantage once seen as a core moat by closed-source giants is rapidly diminishing, and the rise of the open-source ecosystem may profoundly reshape the AI business landscape and computing power competition.

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ソース：BlockBeats

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