BlockBeats News, June 22nd – Wall Street investment bank Bernstein stated that the price increase of storage chips is spreading from consumer electronics to AI infrastructure, potentially forcing major cloud providers to reassess the ROI of AI data centers.

In a report released on June 22nd, Bernstein indicated that the price of traditional DRAM has increased by about 4.5 times since the third quarter of 2025, while HBM has not adjusted synchronously due to annual contract pricing. This has led to significantly higher wafer revenue and gross margin for traditional DRAM compared to HBM, prompting storage manufacturers to renegotiate HBM prices with GPU/XPU manufacturers for 2027. The institution predicts that the price of HBM may double or even triple next year.

The report mentioned that the HBM price increase may also be further amplified by AI accelerator manufacturers. Taking Nvidia as an example, if it aims to maintain a 75% gross margin after the rise in HBM cost, it may need to pass on the related cost increase to customers by about four times. Bernstein estimated that the price hike of HBM and additional costs in the Vera Rubin NVL72 rack may result in approximately a 15% increase in total capital expenditure in AI data centers; when combined with the price increases of traditional DRAM and NAND, the overall impact could be close to 30%.

Bernstein believes that cloud providers will continue to invest in AI, but the rising costs mean that "realigning" is inevitable, leading to potential adjustments in supply chain pricing, customer cost-sharing, and even token prices.

The institution maintains its "Outperform" ratings for Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron, and significantly raises their target prices: Samsung's common stock target price is raised from 225,000 Korean Won to 440,000 Korean Won, SK Hynix's target price is raised from 1,150,000 Korean Won to 3,300,000 Korean Won, and Micron's target price is raised from $510 to $1,300. Bernstein's 2027 EPS forecasts for these three companies are approximately 26%, 32%, and 38% higher than the market consensus, respectively.

The report also mentioned that Samsung may have taken the lead in HBM4 technology and is likely to expand its market share. However, an increase in the HBM share does not necessarily translate to higher profits, as the current profitability of traditional DRAM is stronger.

Bernstein maintains a "Underperform" rating for KIOXIA due to its lack of HBM business; meanwhile, it reiterated the "Outperform" rating for MEDIATEK, stating that if cloud providers turn to direct procurement of HBM to avoid price increases by GPU/XPU manufacturers, Asian ASIC service providers may benefit.

The report warns that a cyclical downturn may still occur in 2028. However, even as prices normalize, Bernstein expects the DRAM industry gross margin to potentially remain around 70%, higher than most historical peak cycle levels.