BlockBeats News, June 29th, according to the latest research released by the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), AI is expected to break through the traditional technological revolution that only enhances labor productivity, by enhancing knowledge creation capabilities, and changing the long-term economic growth path.

The research believes that AI may evolve into four scenarios in the future, including maintaining the status quo, limited productivity increases, demand bottlenecks, and transformative AI. Among them, if AI can continue to improve its own capabilities, both the economic growth rate and the natural interest rate are expected to be significantly higher than historical levels.

However, AI development may not accelerate indefinitely. As automation continues to replace labor, the share of labor income may decrease, and consumer demand may struggle to match the expanding production capacity. If businesses perceive insufficient future market demand, they may reduce their ongoing investment in AI innovation and automation, causing technological progress to be constrained by demand rather than the technology itself.

BIS believes that in this "demand bottleneck" scenario, insufficient end-demand will become the main constraint on long-term economic growth, and the long-term impact of AI will still depend on multiple factors such as technological breakthroughs, income distribution, and evolving demand.