BlockBeats News, July 4th. Cryptocurrency analyst Murphy pointed out that the average cost of short-term Bitcoin holders (holding for less than 1 month and less than 3 months) is concentrated in the $64,000 to $68,000 range. The price needs to repeatedly attempt to break through to make the cost trend line gradually converge, but each breakthrough attempt will trigger some unstable holders to concentrate on realizing profits when floating losses turn into gains. This "breakthrough-resistance-pullback-rebreakthrough" cycle is a necessary process to form bottom consensus.

Based on this, the analyst divided the current rebound expectations into three levels: $64,000 and $68,000 correspond to the aforementioned cost logic of holders, and $70,000 is the position where short-term holders realize profits (STH-RP), which is often seen as the ceiling of a bear market rebound. In the on-chain data analysis framework, STH-RP is the sentiment bull-bear dividing line, and each trend reversal begins with the last break of this line.

The analyst personally leans towards calling this round a "weak rebound," rebounding to the $64,000 to $68,000 range. If an unexpected breakthrough of $70,000 occurs, it will be defined as a strong rebound. At that time, it is suggested to consider taking partial profits on existing positions to leave room for future adjustments. Option market data also shows that market makers are in a positive Gamma state near $62,000, and hedging behavior as the price approaches will have a dampening effect on volatility. The next positive Gamma position after a breakthrough happens to fall between $66,000 and $68,000, which also forms a resistance zone.