BlockBeats News, June 10, on the prediction market Polymarket, two savvy investors placed bets on "Will Russia occupy Lyman by December 31, 2026?"

One investor, with the address 0xc9328e28, wagered $23.1k on "No," with an average buy probability of 40.7%. The current probability of "Yes" is 50.5%.

Investor 0xc9328e28 bet $18.1k, with a net profit of $8.6k, on the related outcome of Russia's occupation. Out of 7 settled trades in this outcome, the investor had a 100% success rate, with 4 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.

Investor 0x7402928f wagered $5.0k, with a net profit of $9.3k, on the related outcome of Russia's occupation. Out of 6 settled trades in this outcome, the investor had an 83% success rate, with 4 trades bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95.

The Ukrainian General Staff reported that on June 6, there were 223 confrontations on the front line, with Ukrainian forces repelling 10 Russian advances in the direction of Lyman. The battles were concentrated near Novoselivka, Druzheliubivka, Ozerne, Stavky, and Drobysheve. Russian forces have been attacking peripheral villages and the route to Lyman for several days, indicating that their offensive has not yet translated into a decisive breakthrough in Lyman itself.

According to the UNN report on the 9th, based on the Ukrainian General Staff's briefing, there were 260 clashes on the front line. The most intense situations were still in the Pokrovsk and Huliaipole directions. There were 18 Russian attempts to breach the defense lines in Lyman, while Pokrovsk faced 50 assaults and Huliaipole had 34 attacks. The main Russian offensive pressure was not entirely focused on Lyman, weakening their troop concentration for a swift siege by year-end.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessment indicates that Ukrainian drone strikes are preventing most Russian infiltration groups from advancing toward Lyman. The Russian tactics currently involve small-scale infantry probing, tree-line infiltrations, and local breakthroughs, rather than large-scale armored assaults or deep penetrations, resulting in significant attrition and slow progress.

Note: Based on their trading history, this trader is not betting on the actual outcome of the event but may engage in profit-taking or stop-loss behavior after opening a position.

Account:

0xc9328e28eeb44978dbac9debb61ebc92931be6a5

0x7402928fdb9475ff8dc02c4fca0026d19c6e4047

Total Invested: $23.1k

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