BlockBeats News, June 11th, CryptoQuant has released a new report on social media stating that Bitcoin has dropped to a new bear market low of $59,000, currently only 9% above its realized price of $53,600. Historically, this valuation level is often associated with the bottom of a bear market. In past bear markets, the price has usually bottomed out near or slightly below the realized price level, implying that from a purely valuation perspective, Bitcoin may be approaching a structural bottom.

However, the demand situation remains extremely unfavorable. Last week, Bitcoin's total demand (speculative futures and on-chain spot) plummeted to -652,000 BTC, marking the largest drop since January 2022. Long-term on-chain demand (1-year HODLer net growth) has also turned negative, dropping below the trend line to the most severe level since February 2024.

ETF buying pressure is shrinking at the fastest pace since its launch in January 2024, with 30-day ETF demand growth in unprecedented negative territory. This indicates that U.S. institutional demand, a key structural driver in the current cycle, is not only stagnating but has reversed into net outflows at a historically unusual speed.

Bitcoin holders' realized losses have not yet reached capitulation levels. In the past 30 days, sellers have realized losses of 187,000 BTC, compared to 400,000 BTC when Bitcoin first hit $60,000 in this bear market cycle in February 2026, and even higher at 1.2 million BTC after the FTX collapse in November 2022. The absence of a peak in capitulation selling indicates that sellers willing to sell have not yet been exhausted from the market.

While the price level may indicate that the bottom is near, a shift to a bull market would still require a constructive demand recovery, which is not yet evident in the data. Until total demand stabilizes, ETF fund flows recover, and realized losses hit a peak capitulation level, the current price level should be interpreted as a potential valuation bottom rather than a confirmed cycle bottom.