BlockBeats News, June 23rd, Wintermute stated that the Federal Reserve this month kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50%-3.75%, but sent a clear hawkish signal. The latest dot plot shifted from suggesting a rate cut to suggesting a rate hike, with the 2026 median rate forecast increasing from 3.4% to 3.8%. Of the 18 officials, 9 expect at least one rate hike this year, and 17 believe that inflation risks are skewed to the upside. The market subsequently adjusted its expectations, with the probability of a rate hike in December rising from 24% a month ago to 77%, indicating that the Fed is once again putting fighting inflation at the core of its policy.

On the geopolitical front, the signing of the Iran agreement, originally scheduled for June 19th, was unexpectedly suspended. Following Israel's attack on southern Lebanon, Iran withdrew from the negotiations, forcing a delay in the signing ceremony. The significant gains in the U.S. stock market and the drop in oil prices were largely based on the expectation of reaching an agreement, and now the market needs to reassess the previously diminished geopolitical risk premium.

The crypto market was the first to complete the risk repricing. Although Strategy disclosed the purchase of 1587 BTC, alleviating market concerns about its selling pressure, Wintermute believes that ETF and institutional buying interest has not significantly picked up. In the short term, the market focus will shift to U.S. PCE data and the progress of the Middle East negotiations. Until there is an improvement in fund flows, risk assets may continue to experience a range-bound trend.