BlockBeats News, June 26th. In the U.S., May PCE data met market expectations, with overall PCE increasing by 4.1% year-on-year and core PCE rising by 3.4% year-on-year. Although the data did not further drive up inflation expectations, it also did not provide any reason to support a rate cut. As a result, the market quickly shifted its focus from the data itself to the Federal Reserve's policy framework, especially after Powell continued to downplay forward guidance. Funds continued to concentrate on the possibility of "higher rates for longer" rather than waiting for a policy shift.

Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials further reinforced this expectation. Williams stated that the return of inflation to 2% could be delayed until 2028, while Quarles believed that core inflation remains elevated and supported avoiding providing a clear interest rate path. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar remained strong, all major U.S. banks passed stress tests, the AI industry continued to attract capital inflows, all leading global funds to prefer staying in dollar assets rather than betting on an early easing cycle.

On the other hand, risks in the Middle East have not been completely eliminated. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard once again took a tough stance on the issue of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Ship attacks and disputes over strait management rights indicate the possibility of a recurring ceasefire agreement. Although substantial impacts on oil exports and shipping have not occurred yet, the market has begun to reassess the uncertainty in the energy supply chain and its potential impact on future inflation.

For the crypto market, what truly needs attention now is not just a single inflation data point, but whether dollar liquidity continues to be absorbed in a high-rate environment. As the market gradually accepts that the Federal Reserve will not rush to ease policy in the short term, the speed of risk asset valuation recovery may still be limited. In the short term, Bitcoin is likely to remain volatile around risk appetite, the strength of the dollar, and overall liquidity changes. The market still needs to focus on how expectations of macro policies could affect the sentiment in the crypto asset market.