BlockBeats News, August 23, Bitcoin has recently risen to a multi-month high. A Bitfinex analyst stated that this rally is mainly driven by spot buying and short covering, rather than by new leverage funding. Therefore, compared to a typical short squeeze rally, it has a longer sustainability. As all investors who bought Bitcoin in the past 5 months are currently in profit, the main risk of the current uptrend comes from profit-taking chips flowing into exchanges.

Bitfinex believes that the U.S. Treasury's announcement on August 19 to expand long-term bond repurchases was a key factor driving the recent market movement. The initial stage of this uptrend was indeed driven by short liquidations. On the same day, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF recorded a $297.6 million inflow. However, the subsequent price increase mainly came from spot buying. Looking at the open interest (OI) structure, while the Bitcoin price rose by 10% to 11%, the OI only increased by about 4%, indicating that spot demand and short covering played a major role, with limited impact from leverage funds.

Bitfinex pointed out that the $68,000 to $69,000 range is the current key support level, which is close to the average cost of buyers in the past 5 months. If Bitcoin remains above this level, these investors will continue to be profitable, reducing the pressure from previously trapped chips selling on rebounds. In terms of funds, the U.S. Bitcoin spot ETF saw a $606.29 million inflow on August 20, the largest single-day inflow since May 1, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing about 82%. Bitfinex stated that if the inflow continues for a week, it will further strengthen the market's demand structure.

However, Bitfinex warned that the current major risk is a large amount of profitable Bitcoin flowing into exchanges, which may trigger the largest profit-taking sell-off since 2026. Analysts stated that if the actual yield rises back to the level that previously suppressed Bitcoin below $65,000, macro factors could still rapidly affect the market.