BlockBeats News, May 19th, the oil price shock is becoming a core risk factor for the global market in 2026. Analysis indicates that the World Bank expects energy prices to rise by 24% in 2026, with overall commodity prices increasing by 16%. The high oil price is exerting dual pressure on stocks and the crypto market by driving inflation and rate expectations higher.

Geopolitical disruptions causing a 1% decrease in oil supply could lead to an average 11.5% increase in international oil prices. Morgan Stanley's April model projected that in the event of extreme transportation bottlenecks, international oil prices could rise to $150 to $180 per barrel.

As for the crypto market, the report notes that during a March 2026 energy-driven cross-asset sell-off, Bitcoin briefly dropped to the mid-$60,000s but later stabilized around $70,000; approximately 600,000 BTC were traded during this period. The analysis suggests that high oil prices are pushing up U.S. bond yields and a stronger dollar, leading to short-term fund outflows from risk assets and the crypto market.

The report also points out that if energy supply stabilizes in the second half of 2026, causing oil prices to fall back to the $80 to $90 range, global liquidity may flow back to tech stocks and the DeFi market; however, if the Middle East transport routes further deteriorate, the global market could enter a "quasi-recession" environment, putting greater selling pressure on risk assets.