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BlockBeats News, June 13th - Next week, the market focus will be on the interest rate decisions of several major central banks, including the Federal Reserve. Since assuming office as the new Chair of the Federal Reserve, Powell has remained silent. The press conference after the June rate decision will be a key validation of his monetary policy stance. The market is also expecting clear signals on communication mechanism reforms from him. Here are the key points that the market will focus on in the coming week (all times are in Beijing time):
Monday 15:15 - ECB President Lagarde delivers a speech;
Tuesday TBD - Bank of Japan announces interest rate decision; 14:30 - BOJ Deputy Governor Masayoshi Amamiya holds a monetary policy press conference;
Tuesday 20:15 - US ADP Employment Change for the week ending May 30th;
Thursday 2:00 - Federal Reserve FOMC announces interest rate decision and economic projections summary; 2:30 - Fed Chair Powell holds a monetary policy press conference;
Thursday 20:30 - US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending June 13th, US Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index for June.
In terms of policy signals, the market is focusing on whether three hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve will materialize: first, whether the statement "leaning towards a rate cut in the next step" will be removed from the original policy statement. If this wording is removed, it signifies the Fed formally ending its previous dovish bias and shifting to a policy stance centered around inflation fighting. Secondly, the changes in the dot plot. The March dot plot indicated one more rate cut during the year, but this time the dot plot is highly likely to shift to indicate rate stability, and there might even be a majority of officials expecting a rate hike. Finally, the tilt of risk appetite. If officials' concerns about inflation significantly increase and worries about the labor market recede, it may pave the way for future rate hikes.
Friday (June 19th) - Due to June holiday, the New York Stock Exchange will be closed for a day. Trading of futures contracts for precious metals, energy, foreign exchange, stock indices, and US Treasury bonds under CME Group will close early at 01:00 Beijing time on the 20th. Trading of Brent crude oil futures contracts under Intercontinental Exchange will close early at 01:30 Beijing time on the 20th.
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