BlockBeats News, July 2nd. The global market remains cautious, with the focus of funds centered on the upcoming release of the U.S. June non-farm payroll report. The market generally expects a slowdown in new jobs compared to the previous month, but whether the labor market still shows resilience, and whether there are new changes in wages and the unemployment rate, will directly impact the market's assessment of the Fed's future policy path. Before the data was released, ADP's new job additions were below market expectations, but the number of corporate layoffs remained low, indicating that the U.S. labor market has not shown a clear sign of weakening. The market still needs to wait for further confirmation from the non-farm payroll data.

Fed Chair Powell, speaking at a global central bank forum, stated that recent inflation expectations and inflation risks have somewhat declined, but reiterated that the Fed will not provide forward-looking policy guidance. He also mentioned that the balance sheet reduction will continue to progress, while the dot plot will remain a policy communication tool in the short term. Overall, the Fed did not release a clear signal of a policy shift but continued to emphasize adjusting policy based on economic data, shifting the market's focus back to employment, inflation, and upcoming economic data itself, rather than preemptively trading policy outcomes.

On the global liquidity front, Japan's monetary policy remains a key variable that the market continues to watch closely. Recent improvements in business sentiment and inflation expectations have led the market to anticipate a possible rate hike by the Bank of Japan later this year. However, the yen is still near historical lows, indicating that global funds are still predominantly influenced by the U.S. dollar interest rates and the U.S.-Japan interest rate spread. If Japan's policy normalization continues to advance, it may still affect global arbitrage trading and cross-market fund flows, becoming a significant factor influencing global liquidity.

Turning to the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin continues to range-bound, and there has not been a significant improvement in market risk appetite. Against the backdrop of the Fed's continued data-driven decision-making, uncertainty in Japan's monetary policy, and global funds waiting for key economic data validation, short-term market sentiment will continue to be dominated by macro events. The upcoming non-farm payroll report and Fed officials' speeches will remain key focal points influencing global risk assets and cryptocurrency market volatility.