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Probability of Rate Hike Close to 40% Next Week? Triple Macro Pressure Drives Rate Hike Pricing

BlockBeats News, July 24th. Currently, the market is facing triple pressure at the macro level. Tonight, the Brent crude oil futures touched $100, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield surpassed 4.7%, and the U.S. Dollar Index once again rose above 101. Rising oil prices have boosted inflation expectations; the increase in the U.S. Treasury yield has weighed on stock valuations; and the strengthening dollar has tightened global liquidity.

At the same time, the market has once again priced in the possibility of a rate hike at next week's Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in July by the Fed is 37.9%, while the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 62.1%, with no possibility of a rate cut.

The Federal Reserve will announce its rate decision next week on July 30th (Thursday) at 02:00 AM Beijing time.

Fonte:BlockBeats

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