BlockBeats News, May 22nd, a highly representative signal has emerged in the global market—the stock market is still trapped in the inertia of "high liquidity and AI growth narrative" optimism, but the bond market has already begun to reprice the risk of "possible interest rate uptick." The US 10-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.6%, with the market no longer expecting a rate cut in the next 12 months for the first time, but starting to bet on a rate hike, indicating that the market's tolerance for US inflation, fiscal deficits, and energy risks is decreasing. Particularly with PPI annual increase at 6%, CPI rising to 3.8%, along with the all-time high in US gasoline prices for May, the market is once again realizing that the Federal Reserve may no longer be able to rely solely on "maintaining high rates" to stabilize the situation but is gradually facing pressure on policy credibility.

This is also the core issue the market is most concerned about after Powell officially took over as Fed Chair. Due to Powell's long-standing advocacy for reforming the central bank system in the past, coupled with Trump's continued public pressure on rate policy, representing the future Fed policy path will no longer be just an economic issue but will begin to carry a stronger political and fiscal game color. For the market, the real danger is not just rate hikes but "the market starting to doubt whether the central bank can still stably control inflation and long-term rates." Currently, corporate bankruptcy data, credit card default rates, and subprime auto loan recovery scales have all deteriorated simultaneously, indicating that high rates are gradually eroding the US consumption structure, although the stock market still relies on AI and large-cap tech stocks to maintain index strength, forming a typical "stock-bond structure deviation."

On the other hand, the situation in the Middle East and the energy market remain the largest external sources of risk. Although there have been reports of some progress in US-Iran negotiations, senior Iranian officials have clearly signaled their refusal to export high-enriched uranium, indicating that the core conflict of the nuclear issue remains unresolved. The biggest misjudgment in the market currently is interpreting "ceasefire" as "risk removal." In fact, the issues of the Strait of Hormuz, enriched uranium, and sanctions have not been truly resolved, and oil prices are only temporarily suppressed by negotiation expectations. Once the negotiations break down again, energy prices and global inflation may rapidly rise again. This is also why gold, energy stocks, and defensive assets have recently begun to receive renewed fund allocation.

In Asia, Japan's core CPI fell to 1.4% in April, hitting a four-year low, seemingly weakening the pressure on the Bank of Japan to raise rates in June. However, the real problem lies in the fact that the Japanese Yen is still maintaining a weak position. If the energy risk in the Middle East persists, Japan may face a resurgence of "imported inflation," putting the Bank of Japan in an extremely awkward policy dilemma—not raising rates may lead to a continued depreciation of the Yen, while raising rates may crush the not yet fully recovered domestic demand. The global market is currently simultaneously facing three main themes: prolonged high rates, energy supply uncertainty, and sovereign debt pressure, and these three factors are synchronously driving market volatility.

As for the crypto market, the recent key significance of BTC is no longer just a risk asset but has begun to be an immediate thermometer of global liquidity and market confidence. When the bond market starts betting on rate hikes, oil prices and gold strengthen simultaneously, it indicates that market risk aversion is on the rise, which will directly impact the capital absorption capacity of high-volatility assets. What the market is truly concerned about in the short term is not a single bearish factor but whether "global funds are starting to shift from growth assets to defensive assets." If the US bond yields continue to rise, BTC's subsequent volatility may further increase, and the market will once again test the crypto market's true resilience to a high-rate environment.