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Analysis: BTC Touches Key Support Level, Volatility Decreases but Defensive Positions Still Prevail
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BlockBeats News, June 19th, glassnode reported that Bitcoin (BTC) fell back to a key support area after retesting the February low. Options market data shows that despite the price nearing a crucial level, the implied volatility has significantly dropped from recent highs, with the 1-week implied volatility decreasing from around 60% to 35%. The overall volatility curve has shifted down in sync, indicating a significant cooling in the market's pricing of future uncertainty. At the same time, the 25Δ skew has retreated from extreme levels seen during the June sell-off period, and short-term downside protection demand has normalized to some extent, showing a weakening in panic hedging sentiment.

However, structural defensive positions still dominate. Data shows that short-term options still lean towards downside protection, with bearish options trading volume accounting for about 28% in the past week, significantly higher than the long position buy ratio (24.1%). Meanwhile, the 1-month implied volatility has dropped below actual volatility, leading to a situation where the market experiences an "implied volatility underestimating actual volatility" scenario. A significant short Gamma concentration zone (approximately $1.8 billion in size) is present around $62,000, which could accelerate volatility amplification if the price further plummets, while a certain long Gamma buffer zone exists near $60,000. Overall, despite the cooling of volatility, the market remains in a predominantly defensive position structure.

Kaynak:BlockBeats

Yasal Uyarı: Mevcut içerik üçüncü taraf kaynaklardan alınmış veya doğrudan yapay zeka tarafından üçüncü taraf kaynaklardan çevrilmiştir. CoinEx, içeriğin gerçekliğini, doğruluğunu ve orijinalliğini garanti etmez ve bu içerik, CoinEx tarafından herhangi bir yatırım tavsiyesi teşkil etmez. Kripto varlıkların fiyatı ciddi dalgalanmalardan geçer, lütfen potansiyel risklerin farkında olun.

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