BlockBeats News, July 2nd, Crossmark Global Investments CEO Bob Doll stated that the current U.S. stock market is in a "high-risk bull market." Against the backdrop of inflation persistently above the 2% target, for the market to continue its upward trend, it needs to meet two conditions simultaneously: companies must sustain earnings that exceed expectations, and the Fed must maintain a neutral or even accommodative policy.

Doll pointed out that despite the recent drop in oil prices, U.S. inflation remains above the target level. He also suggested that the current rate-cutting cycle may be coming to an end, with the possibility of a rate hike later this year. With valuations at historical highs, the market's reliance on earnings and policy has significantly increased, leaving little room for error.

FactSet data shows that institutional analysts expect the S&P 500 to rise by approximately 21.2% over the next 12 months, with a target level of around 8918 points. Moreover, second-quarter earnings growth is forecasted to reach 23.1%, potentially maintaining over 20% growth for two consecutive quarters. The current forward P/E ratio is around 20.1, slightly above the five-year average.

In terms of monetary policy, the market is closely watching Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's latest remarks. He did not provide a clear indication on whether there will be a rate hike in July during a public appearance, reiterating a de-emphasis on forward guidance, emphasizing reliance on economic data, and maintaining the goal of bringing inflation back to 2%.

Following his speech, the yield on the U.S. two-year Treasury briefly fell to around 4.15%, dampening expectations for a rate hike this year. However, the overall expectation still suggests a possibility of a rate hike in 2026, with the baseline scenario leaning towards maintaining rates unchanged until 2027.