BlockBeats News, July 3rd. The U.S. added 57,000 non-farm payroll jobs in June, significantly below market expectations. The data for the previous two months was also revised downwards. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.2%. At first glance, the job market showed signs of cooling, but the decrease in the labor force participation rate also indicates that the improvement in the unemployment rate did not solely come from job creation, presenting a relatively contradictory signal in this non-farm payroll data. As a result, the market has lowered its expectations for further Fed rate hikes. However, with inflation still above the policy target, the direction of monetary policy remains highly dependent on subsequent economic data and officials' speeches.

On the Federal Reserve side, San Francisco Fed President Daly reiterated that the current policy remains slightly restrictive and will continue to adjust policy based on inflation and economic data, without changing stance due to a single report. Meanwhile, Trump continues to push for Fed personnel changes, stating that the Fed is facing a "hostile board," indicating that political factors may continue to disrupt the market's judgment on future monetary policy. In the short term, the market will pay more attention to whether subsequent Fed officials' speeches will begin to make new adjustments to rate hike expectations.

In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin continues to consolidate within a range. After the non-farm payroll data was released, although the market lowered some rate hike expectations, it did not trigger a consistent chase for risk assets. Currently, the market is more focused on the upcoming U.S. economic data, Fed policy signals, and whether global liquidity changes will alter fund risk preferences. Until the policy direction becomes clear, the crypto market may continue its range-bound trading, awaiting new macro catalysts.