BlockBeats News, April 21st. The market began trading the "Who Determines the End Condition" scenario. Trump explicitly compressed the ceasefire window while maintaining the Strait of Hormuz blockade as a negotiation chip, transforming energy supply risk into a bargaining tool. However, internal divisions in Iran's negotiation stance have made it difficult to form a consensus path in the short term. This has shifted geopolitical risk from a one-time event-triggered sustained impact expectation variable.

Against this backdrop, a reversal in the core driving logic of the US dollar has emerged: no longer restricted to interest differentials and safe-haven flows, but focused on the comprehensive pricing of "policy credibility and liquidity pathways." On one hand, Powell released a clear hawkish underlying framework of "maintaining independence and sticking to inflation" ahead of the hearing, essentially ruling out the possibility of aggressive rate cuts in the short term, providing structural support for the dollar. On the other hand, political pressure continues to push for rate cuts, and the market is still trading the potential path of "balance sheet contraction to hedge against rate cuts," causing the dollar to be unable to form a one-sided trend and instead enter a range of volatility.

Structurally, the DXY has retraced from a rebound high (around 100.5) and is currently oscillating near 98, entering a short-term consolidation phase. However, there is still clear support in the 97.4–97.0 range below. This indicates that the market has not fully shifted to risk appetite but is reassessing "whether the dollar still has a safe-haven and interest rate advantage." In other words, the dollar is not currently turning bearish but entering a "pricing divergence period" – constrained above by policy dominance and rate cut expectations, and supported below by war and inflation.

This dollar structure directly impacts the operation of the cryptocurrency market. BTC is currently testing the 76K level repeatedly, with 72.5K below acting as a key support zone, still undergoing liquidity redistribution within a range. The dollar's "non-trending but high volatility" nature will amplify BTC's false breakouts and liquidity harvesting behavior, rather than driving a one-sided trend.

The key lies in the two potential paths for the future of the dollar: if the war escalates and energy inflation persists, forcing the Fed to maintain high interest rates, the dollar will strengthen again, making the liquidity range above BTC (77K–78K) more likely to become a trap for long positions. Conversely, if negotiations make progress and the Strait of Hormuz reopens to navigation, inflation expectations ease, the market will reprice the rate cut path, the dollar will weaken, and BTC will have the conditions to break through high liquidity levels and extend.

In summary, the market's focus has shifted from the "risk event itself" to "how the dollar prices these events." Until the dollar establishes a clear direction, the cryptocurrency market will essentially remain in a range-bound state, driven by liquidity rather than trends.