BlockBeats News, May 20th: The market focus is no longer limited to inflation itself, but whether risk assets can maintain their overvalued structure globally as long-end yields simultaneously spiral out of control. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 4.7%, with the 30-year yield surpassing 5.1%, prompting the market to reprice the risk of "the Fed potentially resuming rate hikes." Morgan Stanley and HSBC have simultaneously warned that U.S. bond yields have entered a danger zone that could suppress stock market valuations, while Japanese, British, and European long-term bond yields are also rising in sync, indicating a comprehensive reassessment of global funding costs.

On the other hand, despite a brief negotiating window appearing in the Middle East, the market has not truly let down its guard. Trump has expressed willingness to give Iran another 2 to 3 days for negotiations but has also emphasized that if the agreement fails, the U.S. may once again launch a military strike against Iran. The Strait of Hormuz has not yet returned to normal operations, NATO has even begun discussing escort plans after early July, and India also plans to redeploy oil tankers into the Persian Gulf, indicating that the global energy supply chain is gradually entering a "semi-wartime state."

From a liquidity perspective, U.S. stocks have begun to show signs of pressure. The S&P 500 continues to decline, and long-term real interest rates are rising, indicating that the market is starting to reassess the valuation of AI and tech stocks. However, Deutsche Bank believes that the oil price has not yet spun out of control, economic data has not weakened, and the Fed has not formally entered a rate hike cycle. Therefore, the market still temporarily belongs to the stage of "high volatility but not a complete collapse."

Turning to the crypto market, BTC is currently still range-bound, but the liquidity structure is starting to weaken. Looking at the liquidation heat map, there is a significant short liquidation zone above $78,000, while a large amount of long liquidity is accumulating around $75,500 to $76,000 below. Since the current market focus is on yields and global risk appetite, BTC's short-term behavior is more like a global liquidity barometer rather than an independent trend. If U.S. bond yields continue to spiral out of control, risk assets may simultaneously face deleveraging pressure.