BlockBeats News, June 11th, the U.S. May Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 4.2% year-on-year, reaching a three-year high. However, J.P. Morgan Asset Management believes that this data may have approached the peak of this inflationary cycle.

The institution's Chief Global Strategist, David Kelly, stated that although the inflation level remains above the target range, the Federal Reserve's "most likely decision at the upcoming interest rate meeting is to maintain the rate and continue to observe subsequent data changes."

Data shows that the core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month, below market expectations. Analysts pointed out that the drop in gasoline prices is seen as a significant signal that inflationary pressure may ease. However, the energy market is still affected by geopolitical conflicts, leading to high volatility.

In terms of market expectations, traders have almost fully priced in a steady rate for the June meeting, but there are still differences in opinions regarding the policy path by the year-end. The interest rate derivatives market indicates that the probability of a rate hike before the end of the year has significantly increased, with some SOFR options even beginning to bet on an earlier policy tightening.

The current market is divided between the "peak fundamental expectations" and the "hawkish trading pricing" stance. The future trend will depend on the sustainability of energy prices and core inflation.